Why Stocks Can’t Wait for the Midterms to Be Over

Mature woman reading the financial news

The stock market is likely to struggle between now and the Nov. 6 midterm elections.

And it isn’t because stocks favor one party or the other.

It’s because investors hate uncertainty, and these elections create a healthy dose of just that.

If anything, this year’s election season appears to be creating an above-average amount of uncertainty, given the particularly large number of Republicans who have already announced that they won’t run for re-election—most prominently House Speaker Paul Ryan.

Why are the midterms so significant?

The professors point to an economic-policy created by three finance professors…but seriously, folks…. one does not normally play golf in a thunderstorm!

But what about another piece of traditional wisdom: “Sell in May and go away,” also known as the “Halloween indicator”?

These old saws say that the stock market is far stronger over the six months between Halloween and May Day than it is over the other half of the year.

But, that’s for the poor sod’s whose revenue stream depends heavily on investments!

As for Old Johnson, I’m hanging out my “psychic reading” shingle!

Johnson Long

Big Stick Wins Again

President Trump hods small statue of a sherrif from the early 20th century

Big stick ideology, big stick diplomacy, or big stick policy refers to U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt’s foreign policy: “speak softly, and carry a big stick.”

China recently experienced that the notion being expressed here… is the opposite of the tactics employed by the failed Obama administration.   

The Obama administration failed to begin to be stern and tough at the beginning of their foolish tenure, and grew easy to steal from, to lie to, and all the time,

China built up a force for war in the South China Sea.  The list goes on and on and on….  sadly, America paid the price.

But, thanks to the “new sheriff in town” China watchers welcomed President Xi Jinping’s pledge Tuesday to open his country’s market wider to foreign competition, hoping it will ease a trade dispute with Washington that has unsettled financial markets and could jeopardize a global economic expansion.

Stock markets rallied worldwide on optimism for relief from what has become the most high-stakes trade confrontation since World War II.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up more than 400 points in early afternoon trading.

President Donald J. Trump is not a person that can be trifled with… he does not walk softly, but he carries the biggest stick in the world.  Good job, Sir!  Carry on!

Johnson Long

SAD and the News

Man sitting on a floor tiles, sad, depressed and lonely

Once regarded skeptically by the experts, seasonal affective disorder, SAD for short, is now well established. Epidemiological studies estimate that its prevalence in the adult population ranges from 1.4 percent (Florida) to 9.7 percent (New Hampshire).

Home here in Northern Indiana, specifically St. Joseph County… is home to incredibly cloudy weather!

Further, the County Seat… South Bend, Indiana, has twice been voted the 5th most unhappy city in the United States!  This is according to credible Harvard University studies that specialize in the recognition and treatment of Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD).

Now, old sayings come into play ” you can’t do anything about the weather”… but we can, and must, do our best to stem the gushing flow of negative news that flows like a lava stream from all media sources!

It’s nearly impossible to turn on the TV, open up a web browser, or scroll through Twitter without being assaulted with notifications of a new world disaster (or two, or three…).

Thanks to the 24-hour news cycle, alerts of shootings, plane crashes, ISIS beheadings, crime, war and human rights violations are constant — and this incessant news of violence and destruction may be messing with our heads!!!

I’m going to explore the relativity of PTSD in Civilian Life later on this week…. however now,  exposure to graphic violence can cause a process of either sensitization, in which the individuals becomes more sensitive to emotional distress upon viewing the images, or desensitization…. the same symptoms found in Veterans who return from deployment from overseas duty.

Meanwhile, a word to journalists….A more positive form of journalism will not only benefit our well-being; it will engage us in society, and it will help catalyze potential solutions to the problems that we face.

Johnson Long


Flawed Political Process

New Regulations Take Effect newspaper headline informing you of rules and laws impacting your life, business or career

The yard signs are coming out along with the crocus and iris here in Northern Indiana!  It’s a beautiful sight to some… to others…not so much.  Congress, for the most part, is still deadlocked in bitter and useless debate.

Deadlock that could have been easily avoided if we chose the path of other countries.  I’m referring to countries where political change means the removal of the opposition party and removal of all its appointees as a result of the election.

With a little more than a month to go before the Primary for Mid-Term elections,  both political parties have little to show for the first year and a quarter of President Trump’s administration.

Let me present a small example of exactly “why” the option of political housecleaning is both viable and necessary. To wit: The Consumer Products Safety Commission …still run by Democrats!

The CPSC seems benign,  but this regulator has jurisdiction over more than 15,000 products, from baby cribs to chain saws, and Obama’s appointees still run the place!   If Senators don’t confirm Trump nominees, Buerkle and  Baiocco,  Obama’s picks will continue their reign well into 2019!

The CPSC is a shining example of federal over reach and corruption. The agency has also gone after businesses when a non-defective product causes an injury due to consumer misuse or negligence!  …. any incident from coffee being served to hot, to refrigerator magnets that could be swallowed!

The Democratic commissioners have set a precedent that a business is at risk if it can’t guarantee the unconditional safety of its wares!  This over reach has stymied the development of niche markets where small to medium size manufacturing companies could prosper!

With the threat of economic uncertainty on the rise, it’s time to clean house and get this ball rolling!

Johnson Long


The Ruckus about the Census

Census word cloud concept

Legal and political battles have begun over whether the 2020 census should ask respondents if they are a US citizen, with Democratic lawmakers and state officials lining up to block the plan and the Trump administration strongly defending it. Nothing new here… resist, resist, resist…..

The citizenship question is already on the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey.   

But, the survey doesn’t reach as wide a segment of the population as the census does. 

 It does ask whether a person is a citizen by birth or by naturalization or isn’t a citizen.

It doesn’t ask about the legality of an immigrant’s presence, not that they would answer it anyway…..  that criminal thingy, remember?

House and Senate Democrats have introduced legislation to prevent a citizenship question from being added to the census. 

Regardless of the ultimate legal outcome, a court challenge could put the question in legal limbo long enough to make adding it practically impossible given the lead time needed to print materials and program census software.

Other than serving themselves and their masters, I have to ask ” when will the Democrats actually be FOR something?”

Johnson Long

Here comes Bolton!

John R Bolton at CPAC 2017 by Michael Vadon

I have been a fan of John Bolton for a very long time.  He has always shown guts, spirit and commitment to conservative ideals… and will not back down!

As an American nationalist who believes we should only enter into treaties and agreements when they are to our advantage and who is 100% opposed to the United States relinquishing any of its freedom of action for the sake of joining international organizations, I think the combination of Bolton and Pompeo is going to end up being the worst nightmare of Iran, Russia, Syria, and the Palestinian Authority.

Bolton is more than an ideologue, thought I think we have too damned few of them in senior positions, he understands the interagency process and he’s more than willing to fight to win. With Bolton at NSC I’m more comfortable with the North Korea meeting than I was with McMaster because I know Bolton will prep Trump for the probability that he will need to walk away. Bolton will kill the Iran nuclear deal. Dead. Iran is going to find an implacable foe to its imperialism.

The environment at the NSC is going to change. Bolton is a well know screamer who isn’t going to shy away from letting people know he’s not happy. So get ready for some early turmoil there as a lot of McMaster hires are forced out.

Johnson Long

Federal Government picks and chooses winners in energy production

Giving a bribe, hands of businessmen or politician

How does this happen? well, According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the University of Texas, from 2010 through 2013, federal renewable energy subsidies increased by 54%, from $8.6 billion to $13.2 billion, despite the fact that total federal energy subsidies declined by 23%, from $38 billion to $29 billion.

On a total dollar basis, wind has received the greatest amount of federal subsidies. Solar is second. Wind and solar together get more than all other energy sources combined.

However, based on production (subsidies per kWh of electricity produced), solar energy, has gotten over ten times the subsidies of all other forms of energy sources combined, including wind.


This stupid, costly and corrupt ‘war on coal” the POS past president waged has increased our electrical energy cost by 40% per month …while reducing the dependability of our electrical grid!

And you know who makes the ugly wind turbines and solar panels? Well, the Fed released its latest ranking that put Trina Solar as the top shipper, followed by Yingli Green Energy. Both companies are based in China, which has dominated the solar equipment manufacturing business for many years now…. and guess who ships almost 15% of all wind turbines in the US? Yep…CHINA!

Now that we have “followed the money” … can you see why the “swamp” hates President Trump’s efforts to strike a favorable balance of trade with China? Do you now understand why the drive by manufactures so much negativity regarding a “trade war” with China?

Call your Congressmen and Senators….sadly, it’s the only voice we have!

Johnson Long